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MLBOfficial Play
AWAITING GRADE
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians · Wed, Sep 2, 5:40 PM CDT
Toronto Blue Jays F5 -0.5 -105
Market
F5 run line
Playable to
-110
Model probability
55.4%
Documented edge
+7.4%
The case
Toronto F5 -0.5 at Bovada -105. Cease carries a 2.66 xERA and 25.3% K-BB rate against Cantillo at 4.01 xERA and 12.7% K-BB; Cease projects 6.01 innings while Cantillo projects 4.87 with rested left-hander Tim Herrin identified as the first bridge. Both nine-man orders are official. Toronto top-five production versus left-handed pitching and neutral-to-positive pitch-mix results preserve the starter edge. The deterministic 50,000-trial F5 simulation gives Toronto a 55.40% cover probability versus 47.97% no-vig, a 7.43-point edge. Partly cloudy, 88F, wind 14 mph out to right with no current delay signal. Playable to -110; withdraw for a starter/lineup change, material delay risk, bridge-role change, or worse price.
Model-qualified releasePublished under SR-MLB-0.2. The listed price limit remains binding.
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WINTwins F5 -0.5 +105Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · Aug 31WINMets F5 -0.5 +100Houston Astros @ New York Mets · Aug 30LOSSDodgers F5 -0.5 -102Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers · Aug 30
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