Model governance
How the MLB process earns trust
Our goal is not to publish the most picks. It is to build a repeatable research process, measure it honestly, and improve it without rewriting history.
Current version: SR-MLB-0.1
The current system is a structured manual research protocol, not yet a trained statistical model. Fair probabilities are still judgment-based, so all forecasts remain private in shadow mode until calibration, closing-line value, and out-of-sample performance justify customer release.
1. Deep research inputs
The developing model is designed to evaluate starting-pitcher quality and pitch mix, projected lineups and platoon splits, bullpen availability, park effects, weather, travel, rest, injuries, defensive quality, market price, and late lineup confirmation. A missing critical input lowers confidence rather than being silently guessed.
2. Probability before opinion
The model produces a fair win probability. The market price is converted to implied probability and adjusted for sportsbook margin. A recommendation exists only when the difference is large enough to survive uncertainty and the available odds remain within the published limit.
3. Validation before customers
Every model release must use time-aware testing that prevents future information from leaking backward. We monitor calibration, out-of-sample return, closing-line value, performance by edge bucket, and performance by game context. A backtest alone is not permission to sell advice.
4. Version every material change
Feature additions, weighting changes, data-source changes, and threshold changes receive a new model version. Each published recommendation stores the version that produced it so results from different approaches are never blended invisibly.
5. Publish, lock, and grade
A live recommendation stores its timestamp, selection, available price, maximum playable price, unit size, probability, estimated edge, rationale, and model version. After publication, the record is locked. The result and closing price are added later; the original research is not edited away.
6. Responsible use
Model outputs are estimates, not guarantees. Sports Rounders uses small fixed-unit sizing, discourages chasing, and may publish no play when the evidence or price is weak. Members remain responsible for their own decisions and local laws.