Sports Rounders · NHL research

NHL predictions, prices and starting-goalie updates.

Every scheduled matchup stays visible while the goalies and market form. Our fitted moneyline model accounts for team strength, recent results, rest and back-to-backs. This week, qualifying moneyline selections may be released as capped, unvalidated provisional plays; they are graded separately from validated Official Plays.

See the NHL slate Released plays Starting goalies

NHL source hierarchySchedule + rates · NHL.comStarter status · ESPN, confirmed ≠ expectedMarkets · approved US books

Games in next 24 hours4

48 games in the longer official schedule window

Markets connected, next 24h4 / 4

Paired lines by approved book

Confirmed starters, next 24h4 / 8

2 games have both starters confirmed; expected is not confirmed

Active provisional plays0

0.25u cap · unvalidated · graded

Starting-goalie checks are scheduled every five minutes, around the clock (for example 8:00, 8:05, 8:10 AM CT), with a full maintenance pass every 15 minutes. Last successful checkpoint 5:30 PM CT. After both starters are confirmed, the fitted model can release on the next five-minute pregame check when a fresh paired price and frozen edge rules pass; it no longer waits for T-30 or T-10. The final five minutes remain too late for a new release. Through Sunday, Oct. 25, a bounded qualifier is released as a 0.25u provisional play and graded; otherwise it remains 0-unit research. No pick is forced. ESPN labels expected starters separately from confirmed starters.

Fitted moneyline model SR-NHL-ML-0.1

Trained on 2,679 completed games. A separate 736-game test achieved 56.5% winner accuracy. This is outcome validation, not a profitable betting record. Goalie and lineup effects are not fitted yet.

Experimental model SR-NHL-0.2-shadow · shadow only

In-season scoring and defence rates are blended toward each club’s prior-season rates, which are themselves shrunk toward league average. A small home-ice prior and sample-shrunk confirmed-goalie save-rate adjustment are also used. Special teams and player availability are not yet model inputs. This outcome-only diagnostic improvement is not market/CLV validated, calibrated for betting, or an official Sports Rounders play. Missing rate inputs remain visible rather than guessed.

Check starter status and source →

Model updates

Track every provisional result.

Qualifying trial plays are labeled unvalidated and capped at 0.25u. Monday's review will compare their frozen prices, results and closing lines; a winning week alone will not validate the model.

Friday, October 23 · 7:00 PM CTFUT

Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks

United Center · NHLN, TSN2, RDS, CHSN

Away goalieJacob Fowlerconfirmed20252026 · SV% 90.8 · 17 starts

Home goalieSpencer Knightconfirmed20252026 · SV% 90.2 · 55 starts

Fitted moneyline forecast · a forecast alone is not a playMTL 53.9% · CHI 46.1%Rest: MTL 2 days; CHI 5 days.

Experimental projection · not a playMTL 3.14 — 2.95 CHIMoneyline estimate: 53% / 47% · goalie gate confirmed

MoneylineMTL -170CHI +142DraftKings · 5:30 PM

Puck lineMTL -1.5 +150CHI 1.5 -180DraftKings · 5:30 PM

TotalOver 6.5 -102Under 6.5 -118DraftKings · 5:30 PM