SRSPORTS ROUNDERS

Live selection desk

Picks, with the evidence label attached

Validated Official Plays, clearly marked provisional plays, and prospectively locked experiments have separate labels. A model opinion is not proof of a betting edge.

What the labels mean

Official Play is a validated or owner-directed released recommendation. Provisional play is capped at 0.25 units because its exact market has not yet passed forward validation. Experimental selection is a frozen, 0-unit research test.

Complete released-play record →Model and release policy →

Upcoming released plays

No upcoming released play is published. A scheduled model run does not guarantee a pick.

Upcoming experimental selections · NFL, CFB and NHL

CFB contextual qualifiers appear here only after a real pregame lock. Historical backtests and runs with zero locks do not qualify this model for Official Plays.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Chicago Blackhawks 138

Montréal Canadiens @ Chicago Blackhawks · Full game moneyline · BetRivers

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 2, home 5
Model estimate
46.1%
Paired market baseline
39.7%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 23, 2026, 6:25 PM · starts Oct 23, 2026, 7:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Nevada Wolf Pack -7 -105

San Jose State Spartans @ Nevada Wolf Pack · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.39 points; expected home margin +7.89. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 7.9
  • Market home margin: 6.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.4 points
Model estimate
52.3%
Paired market baseline
49.2%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 23, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5 +100

Arizona Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.27 points; expected home margin +8.27. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 8.3
  • Market home margin: 7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.3 points
Model estimate
52.0%
Paired market baseline
47.7%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

BYU Cougars -7 -105

BYU Cougars @ UCF Knights · Full game spread · Fanatics

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.01 points; expected home margin -8.01. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -8.0
  • Market home margin: -7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.0 points
Model estimate
52.6%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 +100

Missouri Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.46 points; expected home margin -7.04. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -7.0
  • Market home margin: -9.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.5 points
Model estimate
56.4%
Paired market baseline
47.5%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 3:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 6:45 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Indiana Hoosiers -22.5 -110

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Indiana Hoosiers · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.98 points; expected home margin +24.48. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 24.5
  • Market home margin: 22.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.0 points
Model estimate
55.2%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 21, 2026, 5:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

BYU Cougars -17.5 -110

Arizona State Sun Devils @ BYU Cougars · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.63 points; expected home margin +19.13. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 19.1
  • Market home margin: 17.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.6 points
Model estimate
54.3%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 21, 2026, 5:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Ole Miss Rebels -10.5 -110

Auburn Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.47 points; expected home margin +11.97. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 12.0
  • Market home margin: 10.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.5 points
Model estimate
53.9%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 21, 2026, 5:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 11:45 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Georgia Bulldogs -10.5 +100

Florida Gators @ Georgia Bulldogs · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.79 points; expected home margin +12.29. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 12.3
  • Market home margin: 10.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.8 points
Model estimate
54.7%
Paired market baseline
47.5%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 21, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 31, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -10 -108

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -2.25 points; expected home margin -12.25. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -12.3
  • Market home margin: -10.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -2.3 points
Model estimate
55.9%
Paired market baseline
49.8%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5 -110

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.95 points; expected home margin -8.45. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -8.4
  • Market home margin: -6.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.9 points
Model estimate
55.1%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Illinois Fighting Illini +9.5 -110

Oregon Ducks @ Illinois Fighting Illini · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.34 points; expected home margin -7.66. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -7.7
  • Market home margin: -9.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.3 points
Model estimate
54.8%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Central Michigan Chippewas +2.5 -107

Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Central Michigan Chippewas · Full game spread · BetRivers

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.52 points; expected home margin -0.98. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -1.0
  • Market home margin: -2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.5 points
Model estimate
54.0%
Paired market baseline
49.1%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Virginia Tech Hokies +2.5 +100

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.15 points; expected home margin +1.60. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 1.6
  • Market home margin: 2.8
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.1 points
Model estimate
52.4%
Paired market baseline
47.7%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

UTSA Roadrunners -4 -108

UTSA Roadrunners @ Tulane Green Wave · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.66 points; expected home margin -5.66. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -5.7
  • Market home margin: -4.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.7 points
Model estimate
54.3%
Paired market baseline
49.8%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 7:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Ohio Bobcats -9.5 -108

Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Ohio Bobcats · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.45 points; expected home margin +10.95. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 11.0
  • Market home margin: 9.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.5 points
Model estimate
53.8%
Paired market baseline
49.5%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Buffalo Bulls -3.5 -110

Bowling Green Falcons @ Buffalo Bulls · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.06 points; expected home margin +5.06. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 5.1
  • Market home margin: 4.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.1 points
Model estimate
54.1%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Florida Atlantic Owls -10 -110

Rice Owls @ Florida Atlantic Owls · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.05 points; expected home margin +12.55. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 12.6
  • Market home margin: 10.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.1 points
Model estimate
56.7%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

LSU Tigers -7 -108

LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers · Full game spread · BetRivers

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.32 points; expected home margin -8.32. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -8.3
  • Market home margin: -7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.3 points
Model estimate
53.5%
Paired market baseline
49.2%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Texas State Bobcats -8.5 -110

Utah State Aggies @ Texas State Bobcats · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.43 points; expected home margin +9.93. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 9.9
  • Market home margin: 8.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.4 points
Model estimate
53.7%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

North Carolina Tar Heels -8 -110

Syracuse Orange @ North Carolina Tar Heels · Full game spread · Fanatics

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.84 points; expected home margin +10.34. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 10.3
  • Market home margin: 8.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.8 points
Model estimate
56.1%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Colorado State Rams +3.5 -115

San Diego State Aztecs @ Colorado State Rams · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.96 points; expected home margin -1.54. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -1.5
  • Market home margin: -3.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.0 points
Model estimate
55.1%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 5:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Washington State Cougars +14 -110

Boise State Broncos @ Washington State Cougars · Full game spread · Fanatics

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.81 points; expected home margin -11.94. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -11.9
  • Market home margin: -13.8
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.8 points
Model estimate
55.4%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 5:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 -104

Oklahoma Sooners @ Mississippi State Bulldogs · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.86 points; expected home margin -0.64. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -0.6
  • Market home margin: -2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.9 points
Model estimate
54.9%
Paired market baseline
48.4%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -4.5 -115

Boston College Eagles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.12 points; expected home margin +6.87. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 6.9
  • Market home margin: 4.8
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.1 points
Model estimate
56.2%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

TCU Horned Frogs -7.5 -105

West Virginia Mountaineers @ TCU Horned Frogs · Full game spread · Fanatics

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.92 points; expected home margin +8.92. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 8.9
  • Market home margin: 7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.9 points
Model estimate
53.7%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Texas Longhorns -3.5 +100

Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas Longhorns · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.39 points; expected home margin +4.39. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 4.4
  • Market home margin: 3.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.4 points
Model estimate
52.3%
Paired market baseline
47.5%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Northwestern Wildcats -15.5 -115

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Northwestern Wildcats · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.36 points; expected home margin +17.86. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 17.9
  • Market home margin: 16.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.4 points
Model estimate
56.2%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

SMU Mustangs -17.5 -109

California Golden Bears @ SMU Mustangs · Full game spread · BetRivers

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.83 points; expected home margin +20.33. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 20.3
  • Market home margin: 17.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.8 points
Model estimate
57.4%
Paired market baseline
49.4%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

North Dakota State Bison +4.5 -105

North Dakota State Bison @ New Mexico Lobos · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.07 points; expected home margin +2.93. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 2.9
  • Market home margin: 4.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.1 points
Model estimate
54.1%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 16, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Texas A&M Aggies +16.5 -110

Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.11 points; expected home margin +14.89. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 14.9
  • Market home margin: 16.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.1 points
Model estimate
54.2%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 16, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Kentucky Wildcats -9.5 -110

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.05 points; expected home margin +11.55. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 11.5
  • Market home margin: 9.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.0 points
Model estimate
55.3%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 14, 2026, 6:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

South Carolina Gamecocks +2.5 -110

Tennessee Volunteers @ South Carolina Gamecocks · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.38 points; expected home margin -1.12. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -1.1
  • Market home margin: -2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.4 points
Model estimate
53.6%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 14, 2026, 5:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Miami Hurricanes -23.5 -110

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Miami Hurricanes · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.91 points; expected home margin +25.41. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 25.4
  • Market home margin: 23.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.9 points
Model estimate
55.0%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
pending
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 14, 2026, 5:45 PM · starts Oct 24, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

Recent experimental results

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Seattle Kraken 152

Utah Mammoth @ Seattle Kraken · Full game moneyline · Caesars

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 2, home 1
Model estimate
47.6%
Paired market baseline
37.3%
Result
win
Closing price
+160
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 8:45 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Vancouver Canucks 143

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks · Full game moneyline · Caesars

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 1
Model estimate
46.5%
Paired market baseline
38.9%
Result
loss
Closing price
+143
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 8:45 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Calgary Flames 180

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames · Full game moneyline · DraftKings

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 3
Model estimate
45.5%
Paired market baseline
33.2%
Result
win
Closing price
+180
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 7:25 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 8:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Edmonton Oilers 114

Carolina Hurricanes @ Edmonton Oilers · Full game moneyline · DraftKings

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 1
Model estimate
51.7%
Paired market baseline
44.5%
Result
win
Closing price
+114
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 7:25 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 8:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

St. Louis Blues 110

Vegas Golden Knights @ St. Louis Blues · Full game moneyline · BetMGM

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 1
Model estimate
51.4%
Paired market baseline
45.5%
Result
win
Closing price
+110
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 6:25 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 7:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

New York Islanders -104

Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders · Full game moneyline · FanDuel

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 1
Model estimate
56.6%
Paired market baseline
48.7%
Result
loss
Closing price
-104
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 5:55 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Anaheim Ducks 178

Anaheim Ducks @ New Jersey Devils · Full game moneyline · Caesars

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 1
Model estimate
44.1%
Paired market baseline
33.6%
Result
loss
Closing price
+178
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 5:25 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Pittsburgh Penguins -107

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins · Full game moneyline · Caesars

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 0, home 2
Model estimate
58.4%
Paired market baseline
49.6%
Result
win
Closing price
-107
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 22, 2026, 5:25 PM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NHL · Experimental · 0 units

Philadelphia Flyers 180

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres · Full game moneyline · DraftKings

Frozen NHL research selection for prospective grading only. Not an Official Play; model edge and goalie effects remain unvalidated.

  • home goalie: confirmed
  • away goalie: confirmed
  • Rest days: away 1, home 3
Model estimate
41.0%
Paired market baseline
33.2%
Result
win
Closing price
+180
Model version
SR-NHL-ML-0.1
Frozen Oct 21, 2026, 5:55 PM · starts Oct 21, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Memphis Tigers -10.5 -102

East Carolina Pirates @ Memphis Tigers · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.06 points; expected home margin +11.31. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 11.3
  • Market home margin: 10.3
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.1 points
Model estimate
52.1%
Paired market baseline
47.9%
Result
loss
Closing price
-110
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 20, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 22, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 -105

Duke Blue Devils @ Virginia Cavaliers · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.00 points; expected home margin +4.50. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 4.5
  • Market home margin: 2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.0 points
Model estimate
55.2%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
Grading pending
Closing price
-114
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 23, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NFL · Experimental · 0 units

Over +44.5 -105

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts · Full game total · FanDuel

Prospective NFL experimental selection. A frozen model projection and fresh exact same-book price showed positive actual-price EV at lock. Research only: this is not an Official Play or a proven market edge.

  • Projected score: 18.4–28.4
  • Availability-adjusted home margin: +9.1
  • Availability-adjusted total: 43.9
  • QBs: Cam Ward / Daniel Jones
  • Server injury snapshot 2026-10-18T13:15:37.849Z: 5 / 5; official report corroborated
  • Lucas Oil Stadium · 58°F · gusts 12 mph · 0% precipitation
Model estimate
52.1%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
win
Closing price
-115
Model version
SR-NFL-0.2
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:15 AM · starts Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NFL · Experimental · 0 units

Under +39.5 -115

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns · Full game total · FanDuel

Prospective NFL experimental selection. A frozen model projection and fresh exact same-book price showed positive actual-price EV at lock. Research only: this is not an Official Play or a proven market edge.

  • Projected score: 20.8–17.0
  • Availability-adjusted home margin: -2.1
  • Availability-adjusted total: 36.6
  • QBs: Lamar Jackson / Deshaun Watson
  • Server injury snapshot 2026-10-18T13:15:37.849Z: 5 / 5; official report corroborated
  • Huntington Bank Field · 60°F · gusts 18 mph · 0% precipitation
Model estimate
53.5%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
win
Closing price
-115
Model version
SR-NFL-0.2
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 8:15 AM · starts Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NFL · Experimental · 0 units

Los Angeles Chargers +320

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs · Full game ML · Caesars

Prospective NFL experimental selection. A frozen model projection and fresh exact same-book price showed positive actual-price EV at lock. Research only: this is not an Official Play or a proven market edge.

  • Projected score: 21.9–22.8
  • Availability-adjusted home margin: +2.0
  • Availability-adjusted total: 44.4
  • QBs: Justin Herbert / Patrick Mahomes
  • Server injury snapshot 2026-10-18T12:30:16.438Z: 5 / 5; official report corroborated
  • Arrowhead Stadium · 67°F · gusts 23 mph · 0% precipitation
Model estimate
26.3%
Paired market baseline
21.3%
Result
loss
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-NFL-0.2
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 7:30 AM · starts Oct 18, 2026, 3:25 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NFL · Experimental · 0 units

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +122

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Full game ML · Caesars

Prospective NFL experimental selection. A frozen model projection and fresh exact same-book price showed positive actual-price EV at lock. Research only: this is not an Official Play or a proven market edge.

  • Projected score: 22.0–27.3
  • Availability-adjusted home margin: +3.3
  • Availability-adjusted total: 46.4
  • QBs: Aaron Rodgers / Baker Mayfield
  • Server injury snapshot 2026-10-18T12:30:16.438Z: 5 / 5; official report corroborated
  • Raymond James Stadium · 78°F · gusts 27 mph · 0% precipitation
Model estimate
48.0%
Paired market baseline
43.0%
Result
loss
Closing price
+116
Model version
SR-NFL-0.2
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 7:30 AM · starts Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

NFL · Experimental · 0 units

Green Bay Packers -118

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers · Full game ML · Caesars

Prospective NFL experimental selection. A frozen model projection and fresh exact same-book price showed positive actual-price EV at lock. Research only: this is not an Official Play or a proven market edge.

  • Projected score: 22.4–30.8
  • Availability-adjusted home margin: +6.2
  • Availability-adjusted total: 52.0
  • QBs: Dak Prescott / Jordan Love
  • Server injury snapshot 2026-10-18T12:30:16.438Z: 5 / 5; official report corroborated
  • Lambeau Field · 56°F · gusts 22 mph · 0% precipitation
Model estimate
57.2%
Paired market baseline
52.2%
Result
win
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-NFL-0.2
Frozen Oct 18, 2026, 7:30 AM · starts Oct 18, 2026, 7:20 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Sam Houston State Bearkats +2.5 -105

New Mexico State Aggies @ Sam Houston State Bearkats · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.06 points; expected home margin -1.44. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -1.4
  • Market home margin: -2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.1 points
Model estimate
52.8%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
loss
Closing price
-118
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 15, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 21, 2026, 7:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Florida International Panthers -9.5 -115

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Florida International Panthers · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.77 points; expected home margin +11.27. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 11.3
  • Market home margin: 9.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.8 points
Model estimate
54.6%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
loss
Closing price
-104
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 15, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

UTSA Roadrunners -7 -105

Navy Midshipmen @ UTSA Roadrunners · Full game spread · BetMGM

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.06 points; expected home margin +8.06. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 8.1
  • Market home margin: 7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.1 points
Model estimate
52.8%
Paired market baseline
49.2%
Result
loss
Closing price
-108
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 15, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Marshall Thundering Herd +2.5 -110

South Alabama Jaguars @ Marshall Thundering Herd · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.34 points; expected home margin -0.16. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -0.2
  • Market home margin: -2.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.3 points
Model estimate
56.1%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
win
Closing price
-115
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 14, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 20, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Elon Phoenix +35.5 -110

Elon Phoenix @ Stanford Cardinal · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.88 points; expected home margin +33.62. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 33.6
  • Market home margin: 35.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.9 points
Model estimate
54.9%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
win
Closing price
-110
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 13, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Oregon Ducks -7 -106

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Oregon Ducks · Full game spread · Caesars

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.75 points; expected home margin +8.75. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 8.7
  • Market home margin: 7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.7 points
Model estimate
54.6%
Paired market baseline
49.1%
Result
loss
Closing price
-112
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 12, 2026, 8:45 AM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 10:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Michigan Wolverines -6 -105

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines · Full game spread · Fanatics

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.03 points; expected home margin +7.03. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 7.0
  • Market home margin: 6.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.0 points
Model estimate
52.7%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
loss
Closing price
Not captured yet
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Air Force Falcons +1.5 -105

UNLV Rebels @ Air Force Falcons · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.74 points; expected home margin +0.24. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 0.2
  • Market home margin: -1.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.7 points
Model estimate
54.6%
Paired market baseline
48.8%
Result
win
Closing price
-118
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Georgia Southern Eagles -3.5 -109

Georgia Southern Eagles @ Old Dominion Monarchs · Full game spread · BetRivers

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -1.29 points; expected home margin -5.29. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -5.3
  • Market home margin: -4.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -1.3 points
Model estimate
54.7%
Paired market baseline
49.4%
Result
win
Closing price
-105
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 4:45 PM · starts Oct 15, 2026, 6:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Arkansas State Red Wolves -6.5 -115

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -2.67 points; expected home margin -9.67. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: -9.7
  • Market home margin: -7.0
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -2.7 points
Model estimate
58.2%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
win
Closing price
-110
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 6:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Troy Trojans +4.5 -110

Troy Trojans @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns · Full game spread · DraftKings

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment -2.09 points; expected home margin +2.41. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 2.4
  • Market home margin: 4.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: -2.1 points
Model estimate
55.5%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
loss
Closing price
-112
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Miami (OH) RedHawks -9.5 -115

Akron Zips @ Miami (OH) RedHawks · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +2.09 points; expected home margin +11.84. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 11.8
  • Market home margin: 9.8
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +2.1 points
Model estimate
56.1%
Paired market baseline
51.2%
Result
win
Closing price
-115
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 2:30 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

Temple Owls -23.5 -106

Charlotte 49ers @ Temple Owls · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +1.84 points; expected home margin +25.34. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 25.3
  • Market home margin: 23.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +1.8 points
Model estimate
54.8%
Paired market baseline
49.1%
Result
loss
Closing price
-115
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

College football · Experimental · 0 units

South Florida Bulls -16.5 -110

Kent State Golden Flashes @ South Florida Bulls · Full game spread · FanDuel

Prospective efficiency-residual shadow. Market consensus is the baseline; the adjustment uses opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate and explosiveness available before kickoff. Residual adjustment +3.00 points; expected home margin +20.50. QB and continuity effects are not yet fitted in this challenger. This tests the challenger and cannot create a customer recommendation.

  • Model home margin: 20.5
  • Market home margin: 17.5
  • Opponent-adjusted residual: +3.0 points
Model estimate
60.4%
Paired market baseline
50.0%
Result
win
Closing price
-110
Model version
SR-CFB-EFF-RESIDUAL-0.1
Frozen Oct 11, 2026, 12:45 PM · starts Oct 17, 2026, 11:00 AM. Not an Official Play or a validated edge.

Experimental prices are historical snapshots, not a promise that the line is still available. Research selections are never backfilled after kickoff or counted in the Official Play record. Results and model versions stay visible so the daily learning review can compare them with the market.

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