NHL matchup preview · Friday, October 23

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · FUT. Official starter states, prior-season rates and the current approved-book market are shown separately.

Starting goalie boardAll NHL games
Fitted moneyline forecast · SR-NHL-ML-0.1

TBL: 44.8% · COL: 55.2%.

Full days off: TBL 2; COL 2. Team strength and recent results are fitted from completed games. Goalie and lineup effects are not fitted; this is not an official pick.

Experimental NHL model SR-NHL-0.2-shadow · shadow only · no official play

Current-season team scoring and defence rates are blended toward prior-season rates, with both shrunk toward league average. A small home-ice prior and sample-shrunk goalie adjustment are also applied when ESPN confirms both starters. This showed modest outcome-only improvement in a two-season chronological test, but has not passed market or CLV validation; it is not a recommended bet, edge, or playable price.

Starting goalies

Starter status is recorded with every forecast.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiyconfirmed20252026 stats · SV% 91.2 · GAA 2.31 · 58 startsSource →
Colorado Avalanche: Mackenzie Blackwoodconfirmed20252026 stats · SV% 90.4 · GAA 2.50 · 36 startsSource →
Full starting-goalie tracker →

Model baseline

Score projection

TBL 2.79 — 3.12 COL
Away win estimate
44.8%
Home win estimate
55.2%
Modelled total
5.91
Both goalies confirmed
Yes
NHL.com · current rates: 20262027 · shrinkage prior: 20252026 · method independent-poisson-score-matrix-v0.2-seasonal-shrinkage.

Current market

Paired prices

MoneylineTBL +102 · COL -122DraftKings · refreshed 6:29 PM CT
Puck lineTBL 1.5 -238 · COL -1.5 +195DraftKings · refreshed 6:29 PM CT
TotalOver 6.5 -102 · Under 6.5 -118DraftKings · refreshed 6:29 PM CT

NHL.com schedule and historical team rates · ESPN starting-goalie status · The Odds API market feed filtered to approved sportsbooks. Market feed status: The Odds API live sportsbook pairs.