NHL matchup preview · Saturday, October 24

Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth

8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · FUT. Official starter states, prior-season rates and the current approved-book market are shown separately.

Starting goalie boardAll NHL games
Experimental NHL model SR-NHL-0.2-shadow · shadow only · no official play

Current-season team scoring and defence rates are blended toward prior-season rates, with both shrunk toward league average. A small home-ice prior and sample-shrunk goalie adjustment are also applied when ESPN confirms both starters. This showed modest outcome-only improvement in a two-season chronological test, but has not passed market or CLV validation; it is not a recommended bet, edge, or playable price.

Starting goalies

Starter status is recorded with every forecast.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Dennis Hildebyexpected20252026 stats · SV% 91.4 · GAA 2.86 · 14 startsSource →
Utah Mammoth: Karel Vejmelkaexpected20252026 stats · SV% 89.7 · GAA 2.75 · 63 startsSource →
Full starting-goalie tracker →

Model baseline

Score projection

TBL 3.06 — 3.26 UTA
Away win estimate
46.9%
Home win estimate
53.1%
Modelled total
6.32
Both goalies confirmed
No — goalie adjustment withheld
NHL.com · current rates: 20262027 · shrinkage prior: 20252026 · method independent-poisson-score-matrix-v0.2-seasonal-shrinkage.

Current market

Paired prices

MoneylineTBL +120 · UTA -142DraftKings · refreshed 6:28 PM CT
Puck lineTBL 1.5 -198 · UTA -1.5 +164DraftKings · refreshed 6:28 PM CT
TotalOver 6.5 -105 · Under 6.5 -115DraftKings · refreshed 6:28 PM CT

NHL.com schedule and historical team rates · ESPN starting-goalie status · The Odds API market feed filtered to approved sportsbooks. Market feed status: The Odds API live sportsbook pairs.